Every four years, the FIFA World Cup becomes the biggest commercial event in global sport, creating a major opportunity for sportswear manufacturers to drive merchandise sales, strengthen brand visibility, and engage millions of football fans worldwide. Yet history suggests that success on the pitch does not necessarily translate into success in the stock market.
Analysis from trading and investing platform eToro reveals that since 1998, only once has the manufacturer of the World Cup-winning team’s kit also delivered the strongest share price performance among the three major sportswear brands – Nike, Adidas and Puma. That exception came in 2006 when Italy won the tournament wearing Puma kits.
Historically, the largest share price gains among sportswear companies have been driven by business execution and turnaround strategies rather than football success. Puma’s strongest performance occurred in 2002 and 2003, when its shares rose 93% and 114% respectively following a major restructuring under former CEO Jochen Zeitz. Adidas, meanwhile, delivered a 62% gain in 2015, largely supported by the resurgence of the Stan Smith footwear franchise.
Across the seven World Cup tournaments since 1998, Nike has been the strongest overall performer among the three brands and the only company to generate a positive compounded return in every World Cup year. However, cumulative gains of approximately 32% across those tournaments highlight that the World Cup itself has not historically been a significant driver of stock performance.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup presents a fresh opportunity for all three companies. Between them, Nike, Adidas and Puma will supply kits for 37 of the tournament’s 48 participating nations. Adidas leads with 14 teams, followed by Nike with 12 and Puma with 11.
Nike enters the tournament under pressure. The company’s shares are down 28% year-to-date and remain 78% below their 2021 peak. Recent results showed flat revenue growth, weaker margins due to US tariffs, continued softness in Greater China and a 9% decline in digital sales as management reduced discounting activity to protect brand positioning.
Puma has emerged as one of the strongest performers in the sector this year, with shares rising 27%. Investors have responded positively to signs of operational improvement and the announcement that Anta Sports intends to acquire a controlling stake in the company. However, Puma remains loss-making on a trailing basis, meaning the recovery story still needs to be supported by stronger financial results.
Adidas appears to be the strongest contender heading into the tournament. Shares have gained around 5% year-to-date, including a 13% rise in May, marking the company’s strongest monthly performance in almost three years. Management has indicated that the World Cup could contribute more than €1 billion in additional revenue, supported by sponsorship agreements with 14 participating teams, including Argentina and Spain.
The company may also benefit from the tournament being hosted in North America, a market where Adidas continues to compete aggressively with Nike. Stronger visibility during the tournament could help Adidas gain additional market share in the region.
First-quarter results further support the investment case. Revenue increased 14%, driven by strong demand for apparel, while Adidas continues to expand its higher-margin direct-to-consumer business through its own stores and digital platforms. Unlike typical retail periods that often require promotional activity to clear inventory, World Cup demand could allow Adidas to sell merchandise at full price, potentially supporting profitability throughout the second and third quarters.
Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst at eToro, said:"The World Cup has historically had very little impact on sportswear stock performance. Share prices ultimately follow earnings growth, profit margins and management execution rather than tournament results. While Nike needs a strong catalyst to support its recovery, Adidas appears to be the best-positioned company to benefit from the commercial opportunities created by the 2026 World Cup."